【Introduction】: In the fourth quarter of 2025, the market price of MSG fell and then rose. The rebound was mainly due to the increase in domestic and foreign sales of the MSG market and the transfer of loss pressure. At the end of the quarter, as upstream and downstream news fermented, the market gradually cooled down and prices returned to a stable trend. In the first quarter of 2026, the MSG market will be affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and the market conditions will experience stagnation and gradual recovery in purchasing and sales. After the holiday, the supply of MSG in the industry is high, and considering factors such as companies reducing inventory and weak demand, MSG prices may loosen slightly downward.
MSG market price fell and then rose in the fourth quarter
In the fourth quarter of 2025, the market price of MSG fell first and then rose. In October, affected by the bidding sales of leading companies and sluggish demand, the price continued to fall. In mid-November, the order volume of major companies began to increase, and the rebound in demand pushed the price to gradually rebound. However, with the high price and poor shipments, MSG prices entered a high-level consolidation stage after mid-December. Due to the limited increase, the average price in the fourth quarter was still lower than the previous quarter. According to data from Zhuochuang Information, as of December 23, the average price of large-package MSG for 40/50/60 items in major enterprises in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 6,185.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.6% from the previous quarter and a decrease of 11.2% from the fourth quarter of 2024. The quarterly high of the MSG market in the fourth quarter of 2025 occurred in early October, with the national average price of 40 mesh at 6,800 yuan/ton. The low point occurred in mid-November, with the national average price of 40 mesh at 6,150 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 10.6%.
Price fluctuations during the quarter were mainly supported by the supply and demand side and the cost side. As prices dropped to a low level in early November, domestic terminals rushed to purchase at the bottom. Orders were abundant in some areas and the supply of MSG was tight. At the same time, the prices of some raw materials continued to rise, which jointly promoted the price of MSG to stop falling and rebound in November. In December, as the price of MSG rose to high levels in many places, terminal resistance became increasingly strong. In addition, the downstream market entered the digestion stage, the market cooled down rapidly, and prices gradually stopped rising and entered a consolidation state.
Corporate orders increased, demand for MSG rebounded in the fourth quarter
October is the regular peak sales season during National Day, but as prices continue to drop, downstream market purchases are very cautious and transactions are basically made on demand, making it difficult to increase market volume. During the period from the end of October to the beginning of November, leading companies had fierce bidding and sales, and the widening price decline further aggravated the cautious risk aversion mentality of the downstream market, and the inventory in downstream channels was low. In early November, the buying and selling atmosphere in the downstream market improved significantly after the stimulation of low prices and the fermentation of news. Industrial customers actively replenished their positions. Upstream companies picked up orders quickly and began to control orders. The contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic market eased in stages.
In terms of export sales, according to an announcement from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, China's MSG exports totaled 923,000 tons from January to November 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.23%. In terms of export destinations, Inner Mongolia still ranks first, with a total export of 546,600 tons from January to November, accounting for 59.22% of the total export volume. From the perspective of export sources, Thailand ranks first, with a total of 114,400 tons from January to November, accounting for 12.39% of the total export volume, followed by Nigeria and Indonesia, accounting for 10.81% and 10.80% of the total export volume respectively. Exports continued to improve in December, with exports in the fourth quarter expected to be 251,000 tons, an increase of 6.4% from the third quarter. Data from Zhuochuang Information shows that the total downstream demand for MSG in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be 951,000 tons, an increase of 3.4% from the previous quarter.
The overall supply is stable, but the supply of some crystals is tight.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, the supply of MSG industry will be basically stable, with output increasing from the previous quarter. The total output is expected to be 920,000 tons, an increase of 41,000 tons from the third quarter. Taking into account the pressure on amortized costs and the temperature suitable for fermentation, the operation of leading enterprises continued to be stable throughout the fourth quarter. However, the production capacity of production enterprises in Heilongjiang was insufficient, which only affected the local market. The average monthly output of the MSG industry was 306,000 tons. As the price of MSG gradually rebounded in the middle of the quarter, the downstream market continued to cover its positions after buying up or down. In addition, some areas were affected by weather and logistics tensions, and transportation was slow. In some markets, the supply of 40/60/80 items was tight.
The MSG market in Q1 2026 is expected to be bearish in terms of supply and demand, with a slight decline in prices.
Domestic MSG manufacturers are projected to face downward pressure on sales prices in Q1, primarily due to weakening demand and cost support. On the supply side, major MSG manufacturers are expected to maintain high and stable operating rates in Q1 2026, with a continued steady release of supply. On the demand side, the MSG market will be affected by the Spring Festival holiday from early to late February 2026, resulting in a period of market closure and gradual recovery. Actual demand will be low. Although some industrial and distribution customers may return to the market in late February and March, potentially leading to restocking, upstream manufacturers will likely focus on digesting Spring Festival inventory buildup, resulting in a possible decrease in consumption compared to Q4. Therefore, the MSG market in Q1 will be characterized by oversupply, lacking strong support for price increases and potentially trending downwards. Similarly, there is a lack of positive factors on the cost side. In January 2026, farmers' willingness to sell grain may improve, leading to an increase in the supply of dry grain in the market. As the weather gradually warms up in March, farmers' willingness to sell grain will gradually increase. With the increase in corn market supply, corn prices may stabilize first and then fall, with a higher probability of a price decline in March.
Considering both supply and demand, the MSG market in the first quarter will present a loose pattern of "stable supply and weak demand." Furthermore, with declining cost support, MSG prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. However, considering that enterprise costs and losses are still under pressure, the decline may be relatively limited. The mainstream 40/50/60 mesh MSG price is expected to fluctuate between 5800-6200 yuan/ton in the first quarter of 2026.
Source: Zhuo Chuang Information)