[Introduction] From 2021 to 2025, citric acid prices showed a high-level decline, with the downward trend continuing into 2025. The citric acid market remained weak in 2025. Although there was a slight rebound in the first quarter, the supply-demand imbalance remained evident, leading to a gradual downward trend in prices. Industry profits were generally maintained at the break-even point or in a loss-making state. In 2026, the citric acid market will still be in a state of oversupply. The prices of major raw materials are expected to remain relatively high, providing a floor for citric acid prices. Citric acid prices in 2026 are expected to show a trend of high at the beginning and low at the end, with relatively limited overall price fluctuations.
Citric acid prices have shown a trend of decline from high levels over the past five years. From 2021 to 2022, the citric acid industry experienced a period of great prosperity, with strong growth in demand from the food, beverage, and pharmaceutical industries. Simultaneously, citric acid production capacity continued to expand. Driven by both strong demand and capacity expansion, citric acid prices soared, with monohydrate citric acid reaching a near five-year high in the second quarter of 2022, averaging 15,450 yuan/ton per month. From 2023 to 2024, the citric acid market gradually returned to normalcy, with prices showing a significant decline. In 2025, the citric acid market remained weak. Although there was a slight rebound in the first quarter, the supply-demand imbalance persisted, leading to a continued downward trend in prices, with industry profits generally remaining at the break-even point or in a loss-making state. Specifically, from January to October 2025, the average price of monohydrate citric acid was 4718.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.7% compared to the average price of 4901 yuan/ton for the whole of last year; the average price of anhydrous citric acid was 5193.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.8% compared to the average price of 5288.1 yuan/ton for the whole of last year.
In the first quarter of 2025, the citric acid market experienced significant price fluctuations. In January, citric acid prices continued the weak trend from before the Lunar New Year, hovering at the bottom. However, the situation changed in February, with domestic citric acid prices experiencing a general price increase starting from February 24th. Enterprise transaction focus gradually shifted upwards, with a 5.1% increase within 10 working days. Upstream citric acid enterprises, supported by raw material costs and losses, had a certain willingness to push up prices; downstream markets bought on dips, actively inquiring about prices, and demand recovered, leading to a better market performance than before.
Although citric acid trading was relatively active in February and March, the main supply flowed to traders, and downstream consumption did not show a significant improvement. By late March, the oversupply situation in the citric acid market became increasingly prominent, with industry inventory digestion proceeding too slowly and gradually increasing. Affected by the gradual arrival of previous orders and high prices, market activity decreased again, resulting in a sluggish trading atmosphere. Furthermore, starting in late March, the export market entered its traditional off-season, with fewer foreign trade orders and a decline in export volume, negatively impacting domestic citric acid prices. Lacking positive factors from both cost and supply-demand perspectives in the second quarter, citric acid prices experienced a continuous and slow decline. The price decline continued in the third quarter, potentially leading some companies to operate at a loss and reducing their willingness to operate. Although some industries were in their seasonal peak season, the driving effect was relatively limited, and the decline in some raw material prices weakened cost support. Entering the fourth quarter, increased downstream stockpiling and anticipated recovery in overseas orders may provide support for citric acid prices. However, due to continued market competition, leading companies are cautious about raising prices, and upstream suppliers are mainly focused on digesting inventory and fulfilling existing orders. As of October 31, the average monthly price of citric acid monohydrate produced by citric acid enterprises from January to October was highest at 4,960 yuan/ton in April and lowest at 4,468.5 yuan/ton in October, with a difference of 491.5 yuan/ton.
Looking ahead to 2026, the citric acid industry has no plans for large-scale capacity expansion. Companies will adjust their supply based on profitability and shipments. Downstream demand from the food and beverage and daily chemical detergent industries will maintain slow growth. Although some new sectors are emerging, their contribution to demand in 2026 is likely to be relatively limited. China is a major exporter, and global economic recovery may boost exports, but trade friction risks remain. Therefore, the citric acid market in 2026 will remain in a state of oversupply. Prices of major raw materials are expected to remain relatively high, influenced by weather, market sentiment, and supply and demand, providing a floor for citric acid prices. According to Zhuochuang Information's forecast, the industry is expected to enter a period of stable adjustment in 2026, with a trend of high at the beginning and low at the end. The average monthly price of monohydrate citric acid is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 4100-4500 yuan/ton. The average annual price of monohydrate citric acid is projected to be 4306 yuan/ton, a 7.77% decrease compared to the average price in 2025.
Source: Zhuo Chuang Information)