1. Market Review: Citric Acid Prices Rose Initially and Then Stabilized in February
The citric acid market in February saw prices rise initially and then stabilize. High raw material costs and losses pressured producers to maintain prices. Increased year-end demand eased inventory pressure, leading to further price increases. After the Spring Festival, companies focused on fulfilling existing orders, resulting in temporary price stabilization. According to data from Zhuochuang Information, as of February 27th, the average ex-factory price of monohydrate citric acid in China was 4769 yuan/ton, up 6.53% month-on-month and 0.93% year-on-year; the average ex-factory price of anhydrous citric acid was 5298.2 yuan/ton, up 5.60% month-on-month and 2.56% year-on-year.
In overseas markets, the first quarter is the peak season for citric acid exports. Benefiting from post-holiday restocking demand and traders' stockpiling activities, companies have relatively ample export orders, thus driving citric acid prices to remain strong. (Note: This section mainly presents FOB prices, and does not deduct the 13% export tax rebate.)
2. Driving Factors: Post-Holiday Demand Gradually Recovers, but Driving Force is Temporarily Moderate
According to data from Zhuochuang Information, the estimated operating rate of the citric acid industry in February was 54.1%, a decrease of 8.1 percentage points from the previous month, with an estimated monthly output of 121,000 tons. The supply of citric acid decreased this month. During the Spring Festival, to avoid increased supply pressure due to inventory accumulation, companies proactively reduced their operating rates slightly. However, in March, with the gradual recovery of downstream demand, a rebound in demand may drive the industry's operating rate to rise. Industry inventory is estimated at 120,000-133,000 tons. Demand this month showed a strong initial trend followed by a weakening trend. Before the holiday, driven by some export orders and rising domestic sales prices, market sales were relatively fast, and companies gradually transferred their inventory to downstream markets. Late February was the post-holiday demand recovery phase. Due to some end-user companies not yet resuming operations or fulfilling previous contracts, market sales were low, and demand-driven momentum was weak.
3. Market Forecast: Citric Acid Prices May Rise Slightly Next Month
The citric acid market is expected to show a trend of initial increases followed by stabilization over the next three months. In March and April, with high raw material costs and a gradual recovery in downstream demand, manufacturers are more inclined to maintain prices, and citric acid prices are likely to gradually rise. The average price of monohydrate citric acid in major markets is projected to be around 4975 yuan/ton in March 2026. In May, constrained by weak export demand and increased supply and demand pressure in the domestic market, prices may stabilize. Attention should be paid to raw material market conditions and the continued release of demand; some high prices may see a slight decline.
Source: Zhuo Chuang Information)